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Today’s Free Sports Capping Pick

NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  at  BOVADA
in 1d

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12.5

This line is clearly inflated right now because the Packers have something to play for while the Buccaneers do not. Well, I would argue that Green Bay could be looking ahead to next week’s game against Detroit and overlooking the Buccaneers. Either way, I believe the value is with the double-digit home underdogs in this one. The betting public always backs the Packers, and that’s what has driven this line up higher than it should be.

All you have to do is check out how the Packers have fared on the road this season and you’ll be in love with the Buccaneers as well. Indeed, Green Bay is just 3-4 on the road this season. It is getting outscored by an average of 4.9 points per game on the road, and outgained by 47.3 yards per game. It averages just 21.1 points and 341.6 yards per game, while giving up 26.0 points and 378.9 points per game away from home.

Even the three road wins for the Packers have been close as they won by 3 points at Miami and by 3 at Minnesota.  They did beat the Bears by 21 on the road, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Bears actually outgained the Packers by 138 yards.  All five of Aaron Rodgers’ interceptions this season have come on the road, where he’s been held to under 210 yards passing four times in seven starts.  He’s been limited to just 12 touchdown passes on the road as well.

While the Buccaneers have a poor 2-12 record, I have no doubt that they are better than their record indicates. They have simply been a victim of several close losses this season. Indeed, nine of the Bucs’ 12 losses this season have come by 10 points or less, including eight by 8 points or fewer, and seven by 6 points per less. They have gone 1-9 in games decided by 10 points or fewer.

Tampa Bay clearly has not quit on Lovie Smith. It continues to fight as it has only been beaten by more than 10 points once in its last eight games overall. It has a 6-point overtime loss to Minnesota, a 5-point road loss at Cleveland, a 27-7 win over Washington, a 1-point home loss to Cincinnati and a 2-point road loss to Carolina during this stretch, just to name a few. The Buccaneers have actually outgained four of their last seven opponents despite going 1-6 over that span. They will continue to be competitive Sunday.

The Packers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record. They have a tendency of playing down to their competition, and that has been evident by this trend. Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its seven road games this season. Tampa Bay is 9-4-2 ATS in its last 15 games after gaining more than 150 rushing yards in its last game. The Bucs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Packers, including 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings.  Bet the Buccaneers Sunday.

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