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Today’s Free Sports Capping Pick

MLB  |  Sep 04, 2015
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
in 4h

Start your Labor Day Weekend off with this very strong play that Ryan’s research shows will cover by at least 7 points. It is backed by TWO system hitting high winning percentages and several game situations with one sporting a perfect 8-0 ATS record. 

10* play on Toronto has they host the Baltimore Orioles in AL East action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. Plus another 10* graded play on Tampa Bay as they visit the Bronx and take on the NY Yankees also in AL East action. These plays are a continuation of my ‘arbitrage’ wager where I am selling the Yankees and buying the Blue Jays. The strategy started 26 days days ago when the Yankees held a 6 1/2 game lead over the Blue Jays and is based on the premise that Toronto will catch and pass the NY Yankees. I’m now targeting Toronto to have a 5 game lead before stopping this daily arbitrage. Remember though, the timing is not important, but the trend that has Toronto taking over the lead and building a lead over the Yankees is paramount.

For the first 26 days I have recommended this strategy, it has made the $100 player a very nice $1550 and for the Dime Player a nice bonus of $15,500. 

For those reviewing this strategy for the first time, an arbitrage in Wall Street terms is the simultaneous buying and selling of homogenous securities. So, in the software space, Apple Computer and Microsoft would be considered homogenous securities as woulds the 10-year Treasury Note and the 2-year Treasury Note. If an investor believes that Apple will out perform Microsoft then they would engage in buying Apple and shorting (selling) Microsoft. There is a weighting calculation that needs to be applied as well to equate the securities equally since Apple trades at $115 per share and Microsoft at $47 per share.

Toronto is a modern day murderer’s row and I have been stating that for weeks. There is not one easy out in that lineup and all can hit extremely well. There are two teams that have run differentials over 100. One is Toronto at +196 and then St. Louis at +136. Toronto has scored almost 100 more runs than second best Yankees this season and these differences are only going to continue to widen. 

This gap is so wide that the Blue Jays have a chance to finish with the widest scoring margin since the Big Red Machine in 1976 that was led by Gorge Foster, Pete Rose, and Joe Morgan. They scored 87 more runs than any other team that season. The last team to outscore every team by at least 100 runs was the 1953 Brooklyn Dodgers, who had a margin of 154 runs. They were led by Roy Campanella, Gil Hodges, and Duke Snider. This trio had 120+ RBI each. That was Vin Scully’s fourth season as the voice of the Dodgers and now he has been resigned to do his 67th straight season in 2016. The record for scoring margin is held by the 1931 Yankees, who outscored everyone by 182 runs and scored a MLB record 1,067 runs. Lous Gehrig had 182 RBI and Babe Ruth had 162 RBI that season. So, you can easily see that the Blue Jays are a historic offensive lineup and now they have David Price in the rotation. 

Based on season ending projections, the Blue Jays have a 78% probability of winning the Division and a 30% probability of winning the WS. That equates to 3:1 odds, so anything above that is gravy. Most books have them lined at 4:1. St. Louis is second with a 20% probability of winning the WS and then the Dodgers and Royals at 11%. So, the gap is widening in this projection as well and is a strong signal that Toronto is the bet to win the Division, the AL Pennant, and then the WS. 

Tampa Bay can pose big problems for the Yankees in this weekend series. The series price shows +135/140 at most books and I think is an excellent wager. For today though, take Toronto as an 8* play ($80 for the $10/* unit player and 10* ($100 for the $10/* unit player) on the Tampa Bay Rays.

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